Será que o IBOVESPA vai manter o ritmo esta semana ?
O que pensam os analistas ?
Fonte Infomoney
“Embora a tendência para o mercado siga positiva, analistas enxergam o surgimento de resistências cada vez maiores para a valorização das ações no decorrer desta semana, que também deverá contar com grande volatilidade. Entretanto, quanto mais a bolsa avança, mais preocupados ficam os investidores sobre a existência de espaço para valorização. Na opinião de analistas, parece mais difícil esperar por ganhos no curto prazo. Além disso, os analistas projetam um cenário de volatilidade, especialmente por conta da agenda de indicadores carregada das quatro sessões que ainda restam nesta semana. Entre os principais destaques estão os números do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) dos Estados Unidos no segundo trimestre. Com os desafios apresentados à valorização, os analistas são menos generosos em suas projeções. Para o Banco Schahin, “o patamar de 60 mil pontos do Ibovespa surge como novo alvo, embora seja difícil seu alcance nesta semana”. O cenário previsto pela AGK Corretora, espera por dificuldades para as ações nesta semana, ao passo que as “restrições do crédito e a expansão fiscal generalizada, mostrem os desafios que ainda precisam ser enfrentados e com notícias boas sendo intercaladas a momentos de aversão ao risco, o Ibovespa deve permanecer oscilando entre 56 mil e 57 mil pontos. Divergência : Se a cautela predomina entre analistas, algumas opiniões otimistas ainda podem ser ouvidas, como é o caso de George Sanders – gestor de renda variável da Infinity Asset Management. Para ele, a “semana promete, talvez mais que as outras. chegamos aos 58 mil pontos e aparentemente vai mais”. Sanders vê possibilidade do teste dos 61 mil pontos e discorda dos que veem o comportamento doméstico atrelado às referências externas, uma vez que o Ibovespa já acumula 95% de valorização no ano em dólares, ao passo que o Dow Jones registra ganho de 8%. Todavia, ele ressalta que seu “ponto de entrada agora é entre 54 mil e 55 mil pontos.”
Principais bolsas norte-americanas sem tendência definida.
Lá fora, após atingirem novas pontuações máximas em 2009 na sessão da últyima sexta-feira, as principais bolsas norte-americanas encerraram sem tendência definida neste inicio de semana, com o Dow Jones sustentando pequeno ganhos e mantendo a tendência positiva, enquanto o Nasdaq e S&P 500 fecharam no negativo. O mercado também reagiu mal às previsões de Richard Bove, analista da Rochdale Securities, que projetou que haverá de 150 a 200 novas falências de instituições financeiras no decorrer da crise, e disse ainda que os pagamentos à FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp) poderão consumir até 25% do lucro antes do imposto de renda dos bancos norte-americanos em 2010. Destaque no noticiário econômico, a avaliação do encontro de chefes de bancos centrais, sem sinais de reversão dos estímulos monetários atuais. O chairman do Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, e o presidente do Banco Central Europeu, Jean-Claude Trichet, afirmaram que a economia mundial está saindo da recessão. No setor automotivo, os ativos da Ford apresentaram rceuo de 4,26% e os da Goodyear recuaram 5,23%, em resposta ao fim do programa governamental “Cash for Clunkers”, que ofereceu descontos de até US$ 4,5 mil para estimular a compra de carros novos e mais eficientes em troca de automóveis usados.
Já o Petróleo, apos ter testar no intraday as cotações no seu maior nível desde 21 de outubro, em Nova York o ritmo de valorização reduzido ao longo do dia , embora renovarando a máxima do ano no mercado norte-americano.Em Londres o BRENT fechou a US$ 74,26 ( alta de 0,09% ) e em Nova York, na Nymex fechou cotado a US$ 74,37 por barril ( alta de 0,65% ).
Por aqui, apesar de perder o fôlego devido à instabilidade dos mercados internacionais, o indice doméstico ainda conseguiu se manter no campo positivo neste inicio de semana, e inauguro seu quinto pregão consecutivo de ganhos. Já a balança comercial brasileira, segundo os dados divulgados pelo Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior, registrou um saldo positivo de US$ 415 milhões na terceira semana de agosto, o que representa um avanço do saldo acumulado no ano para US$ 18,943 bilhões. Também o IPC-S (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor – Semanal) de 22 de agosto marcou inflação de 0,21%, taxa 0,05 ponto percentual abaixo da apurada na medição anterior. Oscilando entre os 57.697 pts e os 58.633pts, com um volume financeiro de R$ 5,18 bilhões, o IBOVESPA acabou fechando aos 57.775 pontos, representando um inexpressivo avanço de 0,08% em relação ao fechamento anterior. No diário, com um “DOGI” , que pode estar sinalizando um final de movimento, haja visto a esticada das últimas quatro sessões em movimento de subida, mas mesmo assim volta a renovar sua maior cotação de mes de agosto de 2008.
Os principais ganhos do dia ficaram por conta dos ativos da Cosan ON ( 3,41% ), Bradespar PN ( 3,29% ), JBS ON ( 3,10% ), Sid Nac ON ( 2,98% ) e Telemar PN ( 2,96% ). As maiores perdas do dia ficaram por conta da BMFBovespa ( 4,24% ), Souza Cruz ON ( 2,95% ), Lojas Americ PN ( 2,40% ), Lojas Renner ON ( 2,39% ) e CPFL Energ ON ( 2,25% ).
Já o dolar comercial, iniocia a semana quebrando uma sequencia de quatro desvalorizações consecutivas e encerra no positivo, ajudado por eventos da agenda doméstica e nova intervenção do Banco Central do Banco Central realizando leilão de compra de dólares no mercado à vista. A moeda norte-americana fechou cotada hoje a R$1,8410 apresentando um avanço de 0,66% em relação ao fechamento anterior.No mes acumula desvalorização de 1,18%, e no ano de 2009 a desvalorização chega a 21,14%. No mercado paralelo encerrou com avanço e foi negociada a R$1,9700, representando um ágio de 7,01% em relação ao dólar comercial.
INDICES INTERNACIONAIS
Dow Jones - alta de 0,03%
Standard & Poor’s 500 - queda de 0,06%
Nasdaq - queda de 0,14%
FTSE 100 - alta de 0,93%
Nikkei - alta de 3,35%
Merval - queda de 1,19%
WINFUT alta de 0,27% – 58.410,00 pontos - no ano 53,71%
IBOVESPA alta de 0,08% - 57.775,37 pontos - no ano 53,86%
Segue abaixo o fechamento de hoje dos principais ativos e ao lado o resultado acumulado de 2009.
- BVMF3 queda de 4,24% - 11,74 ( MIN 11,73, MAX 12,33 ) no ano 99,32%
- PETR4 queda de 0,68% - 33,40 ( MIN 33,20, MAX 34,20 ) no ano 46,23%
- VALE5 alta de 1,24% - 33,60 ( MIN 33,56, MAX 34,07 ) no ano 40,64%
- GGBR4 alta de 1,01% - 22,90 ( MIN 22,80, MAX 23,36 ) no ano 52,06%
- ITUB4 alta de 0,90% - 34,51 ( MIN 34,48, MAX 35,33 ) no ano 32,22%
- CSNA3 alta de 2,98% - 51,80 ( MIN 51,00, MAX 52,20 ) no ano 78,62%
- USIM5 queda de 1,95% - 47,36 ( MIN 47,32, MAX 49,00 ) no ano 78,58%
IBOVESPA - Subiu 0,84% nos primeiros 10 min e seguiu subindo até as 12:10 horas , quando tingiu a máxima do dia com valorização de 1,56%. A partir dai inverteu e no restante do intraday entregou o ganho do dia e acabou fechando próximo da estabilidade aos 57.775 pontos, representando um inexpressivo avanço de 0,08% em relação ao fechamento anterior. No diário, com um DOGI , que pode estar sinalizando um final de movimento, haja visto a esticada das últimas quatro sessões em movimento de subida, mas mesmo assim volta a renovar sua maior cotação de mes de agosto de 2008.
MIN do dia 57.697 pontos / MAX do dia 58.633 pontos
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